The 2024 NCAA Tournament will begin on Thursday, with No. 1 seeds UConn, Houston, Purdue, and UNC looking to avoid a first-round upset in the 2024 March Madness bracket. Each of those teams won their regular season conference title, though only the No. 1 overall seeded Huskies won their conference tournament title. Only one time in the tournament’s history have all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four, in 2008 (Kansas, UNC, UCLA, Memphis).
Most years, at least multiple No. 1 seeds are upset by teams referred to as March Madness bracket busters. Who are the Cinderella teams to target in the 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket? Before making any 2024 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 20 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn’s dramatic Final Four run as a 4-seed last year. It went an amazing 22-10 in the first round, including an astounding 12-4 in the Midwest and West regions.
Last year, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 13 Furman over No. 4 Virginia and No. 10 Penn State over No. 7 Texas A&M. The model has beaten over 92% of all CBS Sports bracket players in three of the past five tournaments.
Now, SportsLine’s advanced computer model has simulated the entire 2024 NCAA Tournament 10,000 times to come up with the perfect 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket and find out which teams will pull off the biggest upsets. You shouldn’t even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.
Top 2024 March Madness bracket upset picks
One Midwest Region surprise the model has identified: No. 11 seed Oregon knocks off No. 6 South Carolina in the first round. Led by center N’Faly Dante, who dominated during the Pac-12 Tournament, Oregon poses matchup problems for South Carolina, which doesn’t have the size to defend the 6-foot-11 center from Mali. The Gamecocks, while a stout defensive unit, rank outside the top-200 in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, free throw percentage and points per game. Lamont Paris’ team had a strong season, but might be running into a suddenly hot Oregon team, whose program has won at least one game in the Big Dance in its last seven appearances.
Another surprise from the Midwest Region: No. 5 Gonzaga beats No. 4 Kansas in the second round. The Bulldogs have reached eight straight Sweet 16s under coach Mark Few, so it usually isn’t a wise choice to pick against them early. Led by forwards Graham Ike (16.5 points per game) and Anton Watson (14.4), the Bulldogs match up well with most teams and have won nine of their last 10 games.
The Jayhawks, on the other hand, have lost four of their last five contests and are dealing with significant injuries to their two leading scorers, Kevin McCullar, Jr. (out) and Hunter Dickinson. Bill Self’s team won the National Championship in 2022, but has been knocked out in the second round in three of the last four editions. If the trends stay true to form, Gonzaga will once again advance past the second round. See which other 2024 March Madness upsets to target here.
How to make 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions
SportsLine’s model is also predicting a stunning No. 12 seed that will reach the Sweet Sixteen and has one region where three double-digit underdogs pull off first-round shockers, busting brackets everywhere. With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2024 NCAA bracket picks.
So how should you fill out your NCAA Tournament 2024 bracket, and which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine to see which 12-seed reaches the Sweet 16, and which region features a 10-seed, 11-seed, and 13-seed delivering first-round shockers and has a 9-seed in the Elite Eight, all from the model that has beaten 92% of bracket players three of the last five tournaments.
