The No. 1 seed Houston Cougars aim to continue a tremendous season when they take the court for a Sweet 16 matchup in the 2023 NCAA Tournament on Friday. Houston faces the No. 5 seed Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes in a Midwest Region semifinal at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City. Houston is 33-3 this season, claiming the AAC regular season title in the process, and the Cougars are near the top of the favorites list to win the national title. Miami is 27-7 overall with 11 wins in the last 13 games.
Tipoff is at 7:15 p.m. ET in Kansas City. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Cougars as 7.5-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 138.5 in the latest Miami vs. Houston odds. Before locking in any Houston vs. Miami picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters the Sweet 16 round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament 83-54 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning more than $1,500 for $100 players. It also went 4-1 on top-rated picks during the first week of March Madness. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Houston vs. Miami and revealed its coveted picks and predictions for the NCAA Tournament 2023. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Miami vs. Houston:
- Miami vs. Houston spread: Houston -7.5
- Miami vs. Houston over/under: 138.5 points
- Miami vs. Houston money line: Houston -325, Miami +250
- MIA: The Hurricanes are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games
- HOU: The Cougars are 4-6 against the spread in the last 10 games
- Miami vs. Houston picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why Miami can cover
Miami is an offense-leaning team, but the Hurricanes do have defensive strengths. Opponents make only 33.4% of 3-point attempts against Miami, and the Hurricanes are in the top 15 nationally in free throw rate allowed. Miami also has a 10.6% steal rate, and the Hurricanes were near the top of the ACC in defensive rebound rate (73.5%) during conference play. On offense, Miami has four players averaging at least 13 points per game, including senior guard Isaiah Wong, who is the 2022-23 ACC Player of the Year. Wong scored 27 points and grabbed eight rebounds in the victory over Indiana, and he leads an offense that scores 114.1 points per 100 possessions.
Miami’s shooting splits are excellent, including 36.8% from 3-point range and 54.1% from inside the arc. The Hurricanes create second-chance opportunities by grabbing 32.3% of available offensive rebounds, and Miami is averaging 14.6 assists per game. Ball security is also paramount for the Hurricanes with a giveaway on only 16.3% of offensive possessions this season.
Why Houston can cover
Houston is clearly the better defensive team in this matchup. On one end, Miami is below the national average in shooting efficiency allowed, as opponents convert 44.7% of field goal attempts and well over 51% of 2-point attempts. The Hurricanes also give up 14.2 assists per game and block only 8.6% of shot attempts. In contrast, Houston is leading the country in shooting efficiency allowed, as opponents make only 36.1% of field goal attempts, 42.9% of 2-point attempts and 27.4% of 3-point attempts against the Cougars.
Houston is in the top four of the country in points allowed per game (56.6) and points allowed per possession (0.876), making opponents uncomfortable at every turn. The Cougars force a turnover on 21.5% of defensive possessions, including a steal on more than 12% of trips. Houston also leads the country with a 16.8% block rate, and opponents average only 10.0 assists against the Cougars this season.
How to make Houston vs. Miami picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 145 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 60% of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Miami vs. Houston? And which side of the spread hits over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.
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