A college football national champion has been crowned, meaning the college sports world can turn its collective attention to the hardwood and another championship race. In less than three months, college basketball’s new top dog will be cutting down nets as the 2024 NCAA Tournament comes to a close inside State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
Of course, there’s always a chance it won’t be a new top dog as No. 4 UConn continues to look strong after winning last year’s title. With odds of +1300 win the national championship, the Huskies are certainly one of the betting favorites. But are they the best value?
No. 1 Purdue and No. 2 Houston suffered losses on Tuesday night, showing there is no outright dominant team this season. Kansas, Purdue and Arizona have each held the top spot at some point this season and have some of the key ingredients needed to be the last team standing.
But there are also teams with longer odds who could be worth a look. For this week’s edition of the Dribble Handoff, our writers are picking their favorite national title bet using the latest odds from FanDuel.
Kansas (+1700)
After a wild Tuesday night that saw Purdue and Houston both lose, I moved Kansas back to No. 1 in Wednesday morning’s Top 25 And 1. Kansas claimed that spot thanks to the sport’s best resume. Yet the Jayhawks only have the fifth-best odds to win the 2024 NCAA Tournament, according to FanDuel.
KU at +1700? Yeah, give me that.
As I wrote in Wednesday morning’s Top 25 And 1, the Jayhawks are flawed, carrying around subpar computer numbers relative to where they’re ranked by humans, but they’re still 13-1 with wins over the schools ranked No. 4 (UConn), No. 5 (Tennessee) and No. 6 (Kentucky) in this week’s AP poll. Their lone loss is to the school ranked No. 11 (Marquette) in this week’s AP poll. Simply put, no other program has three wins like that and zero losses to teams ranked outside of the top 15. So would I prefer a fifth reliable piece to emerge and join Kevin McCullar, Hunter Dickinson, K.J. Adams and Dajuan Harris in the starting lineup? Of course. But even as currently constructed, there’s no getting around the fact that the Jayhawks once again look like legitimate contenders. If I can get them at +1700, I’ll happily take them. — Gary Parrish
Baylor (+3500)
None of my colleagues are taking teams +3000 or worse, to which I say: Cowards! I’m trying to give you a team with actual value more than two months out from the start of the NCAAs. Baylor (featured in this week’s Court Report) is the perfect one right now: Championship-winning coach (Scott Drew); potential future lottery pick (Ja’Kobe Walter); another likely first round pick (Yves Missi); experience galore (Jalen Bridges, RayJ Dennis); the best 3-point shooting team in the country (44.9%); quality bench; great home court advantage; tough league that will sharpen them for March. Baylor’s number will shrink by the time we get to February, but it will still be good value whether it’s the on 2, 3 or 4-line on Selection Sunday. It will score with anyone. If it shores up its defense, it will be on the short list of best teams in the country. — Matt Norlander
North Carolina (+2500)
Last year the Tar Heels failed to make the NCAA Tournament after opening the season as the preseason No. 1, so I can understand some reticence to buy back into North Carolina. That may be why UNC feels a bit discounted in the odds sheet — even at 25-1. But UNC has remade itself behind a top-10 offense, an efficient defense and better role players to surround stars Armando Bacot and RJ Davis. Stanford transfer Harrison Ingram has added a critical element of two-way play on the wing, Cormac Ryan is fitting in nicely as a fourth banana and the team has several other first-year players (Eliot Cadeau and Jae’lyn Withers among them) who project to get better and more comfortable within the system as the season rolls along. Davis’ growth as a senior has elevated this team’s ceiling in itself. Add in a double-double anchor in Bacot by his side, there’s no reason to think that this team — one of the most experienced in the entire sport — can be counted out as a real title threat. — Kyle Boone
Marquette (+2200)
Marquette brought almost everyone back from a team that secured a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, elevating expectations around the program entering the season. The Golden Eagles rank No. 3 nationally in minutes continuity after winning the Big East regular season and tournament titles last year. Thus, they began the year at No. 5 and rose to No. 3 amid a 5-1 start that included wins at Illinois and over then-No. 1 Kansas.
But since then, they are a pedestrian 6-3 with double-digit losses to Wisconsin and Providence and a 78-75 road defeat at the hands of Seton Hall on Saturday. As a result, they have fallen to No. 11 and sport a resume that looks a bit underwhelming relative to what was expected. That makes this the perfect time to buy stock.
UConn went through similar winter doldrums last season and emerged on the other side as an unstoppable force on its way to a national championship. There is nothing stopping Marquette from doing the same thing. Collectively, the team’s 3-point shooting percentage is down from 35.3% last season to 32.9% this season. But the Golden Eagles actually rate better defensively than they did during their 29-7 campaign last season. If — or more like when — the Golden Eagles get more consistent shooting 3s, they will be nearly impossible to stop. — David Cobb
Duke (+2500)
I’m doubling down on my preseason championship prediction. As I wrote earlier this week, Duke is on a hot streak and still has only the 11th-best odds to win it all. There’s a strong possibility that come tournament time the Blue Devils are a top-five favorite to win the championship, so this number seems too good to pass up.
The most obvious reason for the vote of confidence is Duke has as much talent as any team in the country. Star big man Kyle Filipowski continues to play at an elite level and his supporting cast has come on strong as of late. Freshman guard Jared McCain is emerging as a reliable 3-point shooter, Mark Mitchell is putting together efficient performances, Jeremy Roach is having a career year and there’s still a chance for Tyrese Proctor to turn it around after missing some time with injury. Duke will be a dangerous out come March and I still think they’re more than capable of winning a title. — Cameron Salerno
