The 2023 summer of realignment surprisingly emerged as one of the most chaotic in recent memory. The Pac-12 as we know it could be on the verge of collapsing after more than 100 years, and now its members are scattering in what has become the latest reshaping of college football.
Following the Pac-12’s lackluster media rights presentation, Oregon and Washington opted to take partial shares to join the Big Ten. Soon afterwards, the remaining so-called “Four Corners” schools — Arizona, Arizona State and Utah — followed Colorado to the Big 12. Oregon State, Washington State, California and Stanford remain in a holding pattern as Pac-12 leadership attempts to learn what’s next.
Ultimately, all six members that left the conference — eight including USC and UCLA — will make more money in their new homes. However, the consequences for every athletic department could be wide-ranging. Here are the winners and losers of the most recent round of realignment, perhaps the most destructive session yet.
Winner: Colorado
The Buffaloes have quietly been one of the headiest programs in realignment over the last 15 years. When it looked like the Big 12 could go under in 2010, Colorado allied itself with the then-safe ground of the Pac-12. Now, Colorado ran back to its old friends in the Big 12 right before the foundation started crumbling in the Pac-12.
Unlike every other team on this list, Colorado’s move actually reunites it with a handful of historic rivals from the old Big Eight. The Buffaloes have played Kansas 70 times and Iowa State 65 times and built rivalries with schools in Texas and Oklahoma during a stint in the Big 12.
Perhaps most importantly, rejoining the Big 12 also allows coach Deion Sanders to go down into Texas and recruit. Sanders spent nearly a decade coaching high school players in Texas after playing for the Dallas Cowboys. Creating a recruiting pipeline out of the Lone Star State appears be a priority and could pay off for Coach Prime.
Losers: Oregon and Washington
The Ducks and Huskies have been among the most watched and successful athletic departments in the country over the past 30 years. Both programs earned a rightful place in one of the top conferences in college football. However, their arrival comes through the back door with a diminished share.
Oregon has won a College Football Playoff game and played for national championships in 2010 and 2014. Washington has four top-15 finishes in the past seven years, including an 11-2 season with an Alamo Bowl victory in 2022. Now, both programs will make substantially less money than Maryland and Northwestern to play in the same conference.
To make matters worse, the Big Ten is a logistical nightmare for the newest West Coast additions. The nearest current Big Ten member is Nebraska, more than 1,600 miles away from both schools. While USC and UCLA provide a Western wing of the conference, even those schools are more than 800 miles away. At least USC and UCLA earn $75 million per year to make the nightmare trips; Oregon and Washington will be struggling on a budget.
Frankly, these programs deserve better.
Winner: Arizona
Football moves the levers of power in college athletics, but few schools can be happier about the boon to their basketball programs than Arizona. The Wildcats rank among the greatest college hoops programs of all time, and are they now set to join the unquestioned top basketball league in college athletics.
Kansas and Baylor are responsible for two of the last three national championships in college basketball. Houston and Texas Tech have also each posted trips to the Final Four since 2019. Eight Big 12 schools finished top 30 in KenPom in 2023, not even counting Arizona’s addition.
There’s plenty to like on the football side, especially the ability to recruit Texas. However, Arizona is one of the true game-changing basketball programs in the nation, and it will be a fantastic fit in the Big 12.
Loser: Utah
Life has been good for Utah over the past decade. Kyle Whittingham has built up one of the top programs in college football and comes off of back-to-back Pac-12 championships. Perhaps equally as important, Utah has left rival BYU in the dust since moving up and playing the best and brightest of West Coast college football programs.
When Utah joined the Pac-12 in 2011, it represented a turning point against its rivals at BYU. The Cougars held a 29-20 advantage against the Utes when each were members of the WAC and Mountain West, but that flipped when Utah got a Pac-12 invitation. The Utes have won eight of nine against the Cougars since joining the Power Five with seven AP Top 25 finishes in the past nine years.
Now, the two biggest Utah schools are set to become conference-mates once again, and the balance of power in the state is up in the air. Granted, the Utes are still in great shape under Whittingham, one of the top coaches in the sport. However, BYU’s elevation to the same conference as Utah has massive long-term implications for both programs as attempt to claw their way onto the national stage.
Winner: The Big 12
One year ago, Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff took a jab new Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark during his remarks at Pac-12 Media Day about the positioning of their two leagues.
“You look at the metrics, you look at the numbers, and any way you cut and slice and dice the numbers, you come to the conclusion that no Pac-12 school is going to the Big 12,” Kliavkoff told The Athletic.
One year later, Yormark has completely outmaneuvered Kliavkoff and given his conference the future that the Pac-12 once thought a birthright. Four Pac-12 programs ultimately decided to join the Big 12, giving the league a second life that few expected after Texas and Oklahoma opted to join the SEC.
Now, the the Big 12 has emerged as easily the best basketball league in college athletics and a highly competitive football group. With16 teams, the league is highly stable heading into the future. For the eight legacy schools left behind after Texas and OU’s decision, the situation is better than they ever could have imagined.
Loser: West Coast athletics
It’s no secret that interest and participation in sports has been waning on the West Coast, especially in football. The last football team from the region to win a national championship was USC in 2004. The West Coast’s last basketball title was Lute Olson’s Arizona team in 1997.
However, the collapse of the Pac-12 has far worse implications for West Coast athletics than just the revenue sports. Stanford has won the NCAA Directors Cup 26 times since it was created in 1994. California has eight top-10 finishes, tied with Arizona for 12th all time. A number of non-revenue sport opportunities have been created because of the money paid out by being part of a major football league.
There will be some level of outside funding available by wealthy donors, but will it be enough to make $30 million difference? On top of that, even at the well-funded schools like Oregon, UCLA and USC, will the insane costs of flying cross-country for routine conference games be a major deterrent to fielding robust athletic departments?
The collapse of the Pac-12 feels like a canary in the coal mine for the total destruction of major investment in non-revenue sports on the West Coast. If that happens, the consequences will go infinitely further than simply football.
TBD: Arizona State
The good? Arizona State found a safe haven and will have the opportunity to play power conference sports heading forward. The Territorial Cup will live on. Getting to play a national college football schedule could be a massive benefit for ASU’s student acquisition; the university already boasts a massive student body and robust online education program.
The bad? Leadership was upfront that they did not want the Pac-12 to fold or to join the Big 12. The Sun Devils were essentially forced into this role by circumstance. Arizona State does not have an obvious identity as an athletic department within the Big 12 Conference, especially as the Sun Devils search for their first AP Top 25 finish in either football or basketball since 2014.
The money and opportunity to play in the Big 12 is enough to make the move, and Kenny Dillingham could be the perfect football coach to oversee it. Still, Arizona State athletics will have to do some soul searching as it leaves the West Coast for Flyover Country.
Loser: George Kliavkoff
When Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff was hired, many hoped that his experience as president of entertainment and sports at MGM Resorts International would give him a unique ability to prepare for college athletics’ modern age. Instead, it only set the stage for another entertainment executive — the Big 12’s Brett Yormark — to run circles around the Pac-12.
While almost every factor that led to the death of the Pac-12 dates back to Kliavkoff’s predecessor, Larry Scott, Kliavkoff failed to remedy any of the league’s ills. He let the Big 12 jump the Pac-12 in line with ESPN and Fox, leading to limited windows available for the league to fill. Kliavkoff looked to streaming for a safety net, but failed to deliver competitive numbers. On judgement day, Kliavkoff was unaware of Oregon and Washington’s maneuvering behind the scenes, leaving him with empty hands as the pair ran off to the Big Ten on Friday.
Now, a 108-year-old athletic association is essentially gone. Only four out of 12 members remain, meaning that any future league would hold almost zero DNA with the historic conference. Scott deserves the lion’s share of the blame, but Kliavkoff failed to remotely stop the bleeding when it became time to save the league. His tenure as a college sports administrator will be defined by overseeing the collapse of the Pac-12.
