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Banchero is coming off an impressive NCAA Tournament run with Duke where he showcased his scoring polish and proved his passing and playmaking is a real asset to his NBA prospects. After growing up as a guard and sprouting to 6-10, his appeal lies in his offensive versatility as a scoring forward who can make good passing reads to boot.
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Smith went out with a whimper in the NCAA Tournament — he finished 3 of 16 from the floor in Auburn’s second-round loss to Miami — but he remains locked in as a top-four talent in this class. Smith’s an incredible shooter for his size and a very good defender who has as high a ceiling as anyone in this class.
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Sharpe is the mystery man primed to upend this year’s draft. The former No. 1 overall recruit reclassified to the 2021 class, enrolled at the midyear point at Kentucky and played exactly zero minutes. But he’s primed to be a potential top five pick — maybe higher — because of his elite scoring instincts, creation and size at the guard position. I have OKC taking the gamble on him at No. 4 in hopes of grooming him to be a long-term piece of its core next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey.
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We’ve had Ivey at No. 1 on our Big Board since January, but we’re self-aware enough to know that’s far from consensus in NBA circles. He’s an explosive athlete who can pressure the rim at will, he improved his outside shot and he’s added a stepback jumper to his arsenal, all translatable to the NBA. He needs to improve his decision-making and his defense to really threaten for the top pick, which right now seem like big enough questions to keep him at No. 5 in our projections.
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Keegan Murray was so, so good to end the season for Iowa. Just how good, you ask? He set a Big Ten Tournament record with 103 points in leading the Hawkeyes to four wins in four days and capturing the league’s crown. That good. His scoring threat from anywhere on the court coupled with his defensive chops around the paint could easily put him at No. 6 in this draft given his easily translatable all-around skill set.
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There’s a number of factors here working against Washington’s NBA prospects that include playing more off the ball at Kentucky and a nagging injury that hurt his production down the stretch run of the season. However, in the grand scheme, he has a strong case as a top-10 talent in this class, hence the high placement here in my projections. Has a ton of untapped potential operating as a lead guard which we only saw in spurts at UK, and his time spent playing off the ball as a scorer should only help his prospects of becoming a solid combo guard in the league.
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The raw stats don’t do justice to the impact Sochan made at Baylor and can potentially make in the NBA. He’s a combo forward who can defend multiple positions, plays wing, power forward and center, and has playmaking ability to boot. Heck, Baylor at times ran its offense through him. With so many NBA teams looking for the next Draymond Green, Sochan — and I’m not saying he IS the next Green — profiles closest to him among prospects in this class.
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At Duke, Griffin took a backseat frequently to Wendell Moore and fellow one-and-done talent Banchero. He was inconsistent, which was not unexpected after starting the year injured. Nonetheless, the flashes of stardom he showed in spurts should easily get him into the lottery. Great 3-point shooter, strong frame and positionally can fit into just about any roster with his defensive potential, shooting and creation.
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A year ago, Agbaji tested the draft waters and ultimately came back to school in a quest to improve his stock. Well, mission accomplished. As a senior with KU this season he shot above 40% from 3-point range, embraced his role as the team’s alpha scorer and — oh, by the way — led the Jayhawks to a national title. His NBA-ready body, defensive intensity and outside shooting scream NBA role player.
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A late-season ankle injury suffered just before the Big Ten Tournament hurt Davis’ production and momentum in what could’ve been a national welcome to his game on the NCAA Tournament stage. But prior to that, Davis was the No. 1 option on a just-OK Wisconsin team that he led to a No. 3 seed. His defense is immediately translatable to the NBA as is his scoring chops from the mid-range in, though his 3-point accuracy could use some slight improvement. After shooting 39% from 3 as a freshman in a smaller role I expect it will not be a problem for him in a system with NBA spacing where he’s not consistently the No. 1 option on opponents’ scouting report.
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A strong close to the season for Mathurin — highlighted by a 30-point explosion in the NCAA Tournament vs. TCU — showcased just how good a talent he is. He’s a dynamic offensive weapon who can knock down outside shots at a high level and isn’t just a one-trick pony as a two-guard. Really like his ability to make things happen with the ball in his hands and he’s a smart off-ball player as a cutter as well.
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Charlotte has waited patiently — perhaps too patiently — in addressing the center spot. No more. Here, they grab a high-flying star in Duren who can defend the rim, run the floor and score it efficiently inside the arc. His lob-finishing ability makes him a perfect fit next to LaMelo Ball.
Ousmane Dieng
SF
France
• 6’9″
/ 185 lbs
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There’s always a surprise or two in the first round of the draft (usually the Suns!), and Dieng profiles as one of the more likely candidates to crash into the lottery. This 6-9 forward playing big minutes and making strides in the NBL with the Breakers, and at 18 years old, he has big potential as a jumbo forward because of his length and scoring ability.
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Another big man for Charlotte? Another big man for Charlotte! Williams would be a nice complement to Duren as a more traditional big who blocks shots, rebounds and runs the floor, while Duren could be the flash and pizazz prospect who defends the paint but can also play above the rim. Think they could work in tandem together nicely, and they could give the Hornets a major, necessary upgrade in the frontcourt.
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Eason, a big combo forward who can space the floor as a shooter, open up the offense as a straight-line driver and really impact the game on defense as a do-it-all weapon is a tricky one to pin down here. He’s raw and his offense isn’t quite NBA-ready but the physical tools and defense alone could get him into the teens of this draft on potential.
Dyson Daniels
SG
G League Ignite
• 6’6″
/ 199 lbs
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Daniels has a chance to be the first G League Ignite talent taken in this year’s NBA Draft after a strong one-and-done season with the program where he shot nearly 35% from 3-point range and showcased himself as a do-it-all guard. Teams should find his ability to put the ball on the floor and create most impressive, and his defensive intensity and rebounding stick out to me on tape. Still some rough edges but has the skill, feel and frame to be a safe pick, especially in this range.
Jean Montero
SG
Overtime Elite
• 6’2″
/ 172 lbs
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Probably the best long-term prospect involved with the Overtime Elite league this season. Montero plays lead guard with pizazz and his playmaking pops as both a creator and shooter. He loves attacking downhill and has the know-how to pull up on a dime. Montero needs to improve his overall arsenal on offense, particularly as a scorer and shooter — his free-throw and 3-point shooting numbers are dreadful — but I’d be willing to bet on that developing here at 18.
Jaden Hardy
SG
G League Ignite
• 6’3″
/ 198 lbs
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We may have overshot expectations with Hardy. Entering the season he was top-five for me, but there’s still a lot to like here. Yes, he’s been pretty inefficient, and yes, his decision-making as a playmaker probably needs fine-tuning, but he was very productive for G League Ignite and remains a very gifted scorer and creator with room to develop. Keep in mind he won’t turn 20 until later this summer.
MarJon Beauchamp
SF
G League Ignite
• 6’7″
/ 197 lbs
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The oldest of the G League Ignite blue-chip talents, Beauchamp this season at 20 years old rode a strong season into first-round territory. Great size, very athletic, just needs to improve the shot. It’s encouraging his prowess as a scorer has at least been proven at a high level after averaging more than 30 points per game a year ago for Yakima Valley College, but the NBA is a different animal entirely. Like that he has some potential in many areas, don’t love that he’s not a star in any one area, so he feels like more of a risky bet than others available in this range.
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We never got the full-blown freshman breakout from Brown in the same way we did from teammate Jeremy Sochan, but Brown’s absolutely going to be in the mix as a potential lottery pick this summer. Brown has a big frame, defends the wing like crazy and can stretch the floor as a shooter as well.
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It was something of a lost season for Baldwin Jr., the former No. 1 overall prospect in his recruiting class. He played in only 11 games and missed most of the last month of the season because of a bout with COVID and an injury. Additionally, he didn’t overwhelm in the Horizon League, where he shot 26.6% from 3-point range and 41.8% from the floor. His stock is really hard to pin down. Ultimately, though, a team will love his potential and past pedigree, so I can’t see him dropping out of the first 30 picks.
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Wesley’s primary appeal out of Notre Dame is his scoring ability from the guard spot and his mature frame. He’s adept at getting to his spots, creating with the ball in his hands and getting to the line by pressuring the rim. His efficiency took a hit down the stretch, and he’s still plenty raw as a prospect, but there’s a lot to like here for someone who just turned 19.
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Chandler is the smallest of any prospect in the Top 60 of our rankings, so that stands out as a potential concern projecting him into the NBA. But if anyone can overcome that, it’s him. Chandler’s a lightning-quick talent who can blow by defenders and knows how to masterfully manipulate defenses with the rock in his hands.
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A long wing with raw potential, Ingram may have played his way into going one-and-done despite a lackluster finish to his freshman season at Stanford. He flashed some real potential as a big wing who could space the floor, defend and even create.
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Ohio State turned to Branham as one of its go-to options down the stretch run of the season. He responded by averaging 17.3 points and 3.8 rebounds per game in the second half of the year. Branham is a big wing who can torch the net and scores it at a really high level.
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Liddell doesn’t quite fit into a traditional bucket as a prospect — he’s a tad undersized for a big — but it’s hard to ignore his production. He’s a gifted scorer who finds ways to produce and he ranked among the top five of all Big Ten players in blocks and scoring. His improved outside shot and rebounding tenacity should help him stick in the league.
Nikola Jovic
SF
Serbia
• 6’10”
/ 205 lbs
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Jovic remains one of this draft’s most unique prospects because of the blend of his size, shooting and creating. He’s a really good passer and Mega has used him at times as its primary initiator, something you rarely see from a player that tall, which speaks to his vision on the whole. The point forward potential is probably not realistic at the NBA level but, like Josh Giddey in last year’s draft, vision and creation ability regardless of level have a tendency to translate up. He’s a connector, and a really good one at that.
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On a loaded Duke team, Keels had a habit of disappearing for large stretches and blending in. But he had a few standout showings as well, including a 19-point outing in Duke’s Final Four loss to North Carolina where he dropped in two big triples. With a mature frame and bulldog mentality on defense he has role-playing potential, which I’d expect Memphis would be happy to jump on at 29.
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Kessler finished first among all college players in blocked shots per game and first in block rate. He was genuinely a nightmare defender for opponents in and around the paint. He was also very efficient as a scorer, ranking top-20 nationally in effective field goal percentage. Kessler is a big man who knows his role and plays it very well.
